what is forex?
The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "FOREX" or "Forex" or "Retail forex" or "FX" or "Spot FX" or just "Spot" is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of over $4 trillion a day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you can easily see how enormous the Foreign Exchange really is. It actually equates to more than three times the total amount of the stocks and futures markets combined! Forex rocks!
what is traded on the foreign exchange market?
The simple answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer, and are traded in pairs; for example the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD) or the British pound and the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY).
Because you're not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.
In general, the exchange rate of a currency versus other currencies is a reflection of the condition of that country's economy, compared to the other countries' economies.
Unlike other financial markets like the New York Stock Exchange, the Forex spot market has neither a physical location nor a central exchange. The Forex market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.
Until the late 1990's, only the "big guys" could play this game. The initial requirement was that you could trade only if you had about ten to fifty million bucks to start with! Forex was originally intended to be used by bankers and large institutions - and not by us "little guys". However, because of the rise of the Internet, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like us.
All you need to get started is a computer, a high-speed Internet connection, and the information contained within this site.
BabyPips.com was created to introduce novice or beginner traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange, in a fun and easy-to-understand manner.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Basic of the Basics
Forex basics: Part 1
The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) trades currencies. It lets banks and other institutions easily buy and sell currencies.
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements,[2] average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
$1.005 trillion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Forex basics: Part 2
Presently, the foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. Traders include large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other financial institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%. In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.
FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Top 10 currency traders
% of overall volume, May 2009 Rank Name Market Share
1 Flag of Germany Deutsche Bank 20.96%
2 Flag of Switzerland UBS AG 14.58%
3 Flag of the United Kingdom Barclays Capital 10.45%
4 Flag of the United Kingdom Royal Bank of Scotland 8.19%
5 Flag of the United States Citi 7.32%
6 Flag of the United States JPMorgan 5.43%
7 Flag of the United Kingdom HSBC 4.09%
8 Flag of the United States Goldman Sachs 3.35%
9 Flag of Switzerland Credit Suisse 3.05%
10 Flag of France BNP Paribas 2.26%
Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues have made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. In 2006, retail traders constituted over 2% of the whole FX market volumes with an average daily trade volume of over US$50-60 billion (see retail trading platforms). Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 34.1% in April 2007. The ten most active traders account for almost 80% of trading volume, according to the 2008 Euromoney FX survey.These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203 on a retail broker. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually 100,000 units of base currency, which is a standard "lot".
These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100/1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000/1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e., 0.0003). Competition is greatly increased with larger transactions, and pip spreads shrink on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.
Forex basics: Part 3 - Market participants: Part 3
Retail foreign exchange brokers
There are two types of retail brokers offering the opportunity for speculative trading: retail foreign exchange brokers and market makers. Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers, while largely controlled and regulated by the CFTC and NFA might be subject to foreign exchange scams.[8][9] At present, the NFA and CFTC are imposing stricter requirements, particularly in relation to the amount of Net Capitalization required of its members. As a result many of the smaller, and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone. It is not widely understood that retail brokers and market makers typically trade against their clients and frequently take the other side of their trades. This can often create a potential conflict of interest and give rise to some of the unpleasant experiences some traders have had. A move toward NDD (No Dealing Desk) and STP (Straight Through Processing) has helped to resolve some of these concerns and restore trader confidence, but caution is still advised in ensuring that all is as it is presented.
Non-bank Foreign Exchange Companies
Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but currency exchange with payments. I.e., there is usually a physical delivery of currency to a bank account. Send Money Home offer an in-depth comparison into the services offered by all the major non-bank foreign exchange companies.
It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments are made via Foreign Exchange Companies. These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.
Money Transfer/Remittance Companies
Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of 8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western Union with 345,000 agents globally.
Send Money Home is an international money transfer price comparison site that allows consumers access to a range of alternative products/ rates available when remitting (transferring) money worldwide. Provides impartial and unbiased advice for those looking to send money overseas
Forex basics: Part 4 - Trading characteristics
There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or YYY/XXX, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX is expressed (called base currency). For instance, EURUSD or USD/EUR is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.5465 dollar. Out of convention, the first currency in the pair, the "base" currency, was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. The second currency, counter currency or "term" currency, was the weaker currency at the creation of the pair. Currencies are occasionally incorrectly quoted with the pairs inverted e.g. EUR/USD but this is incorrect. The "/" acts the same as the divide mathematical operator and derives the actual exchange rate. e.g. an amount of $140,000 equates to €100,000. $140,000/€100,000 = $/€ = USD/EUR = a rate of 1.4 hence EURUSD or USD/EUR.
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
* EURUSD: 27%
* USDJPY: 13%
* GBPUSD (also called cable): 12%
and the US currency was involved in 86.3% of transactions, followed by the euro (37.0%), the yen (17.0%), and sterling (15.0%) (see table). Volume percentages for all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two currencies.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ. The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.
Forex basics: Part 5 - Determinants of FX Rates
The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model. This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.
Forex basics: Part 6 - Economic factors & Political conditions
Economic factors
These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.
1. Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
2. Economic conditions include:
Government budget deficits or surpluses
The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
Balance of trade levels and trends
The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Inflation levels and trends
Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.
Economic growth and health
Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.
Productivity of an economy
Increasing productivity in an economy should positively influence the value of its currency. Its effects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector.
Political conditions
Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a profound effect on currency markets.
All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in Pakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.
Forex basics: Part 7 - Algorithmic trading in foreign exchange & Financial instruments
Algorithmic trading in foreign exchange
Electronic trading is growing in the FX market, and algorithmic trading is becoming much more common. According to financial consultancy Celent estimates, by 2008 up to 25% of all trades by volume will be executed using algorithm, up from about 18% in 2005.
An algorithmic trader needs to be mindful of potential fraud by the broker. Part of the weekly algorithm should include a check to see if the amount of transaction errors when the trader is losing money occurs in the same proportion as when the trader would have made money.
Financial instruments
Spot
A spot transaction is a two-day delivery transaction (except in the case of trades between the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Turkish Lira and Russian Ruble, which settle the next business day), as opposed to the futures contracts, which are usually three months. This trade represents a “direct exchange” between two currencies, has the shortest time frame, involves cash rather than a contract; and interest is not included in the agreed-upon transaction. The data for this study come from the spot market. Spot transactions has the second largest turnover by volume after Swap transactions among all FX transactions in the Global FX market. NNM
Forward
One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be a one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties.
Future
Foreign currency futures are exchange traded forward transactions with standard contract sizes and maturity dates — for example, $1000 for next November at an agreed rate. Futures are standardized and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose. The average contract length is roughly 3 months. Futures contracts are usually inclusive of any interest amounts.
Swap
The most common type of forward transaction is the currency swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange.
Option
A foreign exchange option (commonly shortened to just FX option) is a derivative where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. The FX options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind in the world..
Exchange-Traded Fund
Exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) are open ended investment companies that can be traded at any time throughout the course of the day. Typically, ETFs try to replicate a stock market index such as the S&P 500 (e.g., SPY), but recently they are now replicating investments in the currency markets with the ETF increasing in value when the US Dollar weakens versus a specific currency, such as the Euro. Certain of these funds track the price movements of world currencies versus the US Dollar, and increase in value directly counter to the US Dollar, allowing for speculation in the US Dollar for US and US Dollar denominated investors and speculators.
Forex basics: Part 8 - Controversy
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, economists including Milton Friedman have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market and perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists such as Joseph Stiglitz consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators. According to some economists, individual traders could act as "noise traders" and have a more destabilizing role than larger and better informed actors.
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory J. Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.
In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators allegedly made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions. Given that Malaysia recovered quickly after imposing currency controls directly against International Monetary Fund advice, this view is open to doubt.
Tax on Forex trades to raise $50bn aid
A tax on currency transactions, a levy on mobile phone calls and a global lottery will be looked at by a high-level international task force this week in an attempt to raise $45bn (£28bn) to improve health systems in the world's poorest countries.
Amid fears that the global recession will lead to cuts in western aid budgets, a task force set up by Gordon Brown will meet in Paris to discuss so-called "innovative financing mechanisms".
The prime minister is under pressure from a coalition of UK and international campaign groups to back a 0.005% micro-tax on the $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) annual trade in foreign currencies.
Anton Kerr, policy manager of the International HIV/Aids Alliance, said the levy would raise $30bn-$50bn a year - enough to double spending on health in low-income countries. "All eyes are on Gordon Brown, " he said. "A number of countries - including Germany, France and the US - have expressed an interest in a currency transaction tax but they are waiting for somebody to take the lead."
UK government sources said the task force would boil down a hundred options for raising money and come up with about 10 ideas to submit to the G8 summit in July and a gathering of world leaders at the UN in September.
The prime minister is sceptical about a currency tax, on the grounds that it would cause distortions in the financial markets unless it were introduced universally. Britain will back the selling of bonds and support France's proposed levy on air passengers but is also interested in plans to ask mobile phone users to pay an extra 10p when they top up their phones.
FOREX US Dollar slides to 1-year low vs euro before G20
The U.S. dollar slid to a one-year low against the euro on Tuesday just over $1.48 as crumbling sentiment on the U.S. currency prompted selling ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and Group of 20 summit this week.
Traders took advantage of a dollar rally in the prior session to sell on views the Fed will signal plans to maintain loose monetary policy well into 2010.
Currency investors are also eyeing a meeting of G20 leaders on rebalancing the global economy this week, a process that would almost certainly require a weaker dollar.
A document obtained by Reuters showed how Washington would urge G20 leaders to launch a new push this year to get debtor nations like the United States to save more and exporters like China, Germany and Japan to spend more.
"The big questions will be what will happen at these two meetings, and after that you'll be able to get a stronger view," said Jessica Hoversen, fixed-income and currency analyst at MF Global in Chicago.
"(After) the FOMC meeting if nothing changes, and if the market puts the G20 meeting in the rear view mirror, I think the dollar does tend to trend lower."
The euro was up 0.7 percent at $1.4785 EUR= after options-related demand and strong Asian buying pushed it above $1.48 for the first time since September 2008. The dollar fell 0.9 percent to 91.19 yen JPY= and 0.8 percent to 1.0244 Swiss francs CHF=, near a 14-month low touched earlier.
Sterling rose 0.9 percent to $1.6353 GBP=, while the New Zealand dollar NZD= jumped 1.8 percent, after earlier climbing more than 2 percent to hit a 13-month high after dairy exporter Fonterra raised its estimated payout to farmer shareholders. Fonterra accounts for about 7.0 percent of the New Zealand economy.
With no major economic data on the calendar, traders said $1.4825 may be the next target in euro-dollar, with many predicting an eventual move back to $1.50.
"Every time we get to a round number in euro-dollar, we'll probably try to chip away on the way to $1.50. But for now $1.4825 is the next line in the sand, and then we'll have to wait and see about $1.49," said Steven Butler, head of FX trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
Dollar Dives As Growth Optimism Revives
The dollar returned to its losing ways on Tuesday, sinking to new lows for the year versus the euro and a handful of other currencies as optimism over global recovery resurfaced again just as the Federal Reserve convened a two-day policy meeting.
News: Pound Hit on BoE Easing Talk
The greenback was higher against the pound, rising to 1.64-figure and pushing the euro back towards the 1.46-level. Several key US economic reports were released this morning, including retail sales, producer price index and the New York Fed manufacturing survey. Retail sales in August were sharply higher than expected, with the headline figure jumping by 2.7% versus a revised 0.2% decline in July and the excluding automobiles retail sales report increasing by 1.1% compared with a revised 0.5% decline in the previous month. The September NY Fed manufacturing survey was also sharply better than forecast, rising to 18.88, beating calls for an improvement to 14.0 from 12.08 a month prior.
King pounds Sterling
The British pound plunged by over 200-pips in early Tuesday trading, slammed by commentary from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. In King’s Parliamentary testimony, he hinted at further cutting the bank deposit rate, suggesting that the BoE was mulling over “reducing the remuneration” of bank reserves and that it would be a “useful supplement” to stimulate the ailing UK economy. While King expressed optimism that the sharp deterioration in economic fundamentals may have passed, he also added, “the strength and sustainability of the recovery is highly uncertain and the balance of risks to inflation around the 2% target remains on the downside”.
Economic data released from the UK overnight reaffirmed BoE Governor King’s outlook on inflation, with August CPI relatively tame, up 0.4% on a monthly basis and up 1.6% on an annualized basis. Meanwhile, the retail price index for August increased by 0.5% versus a flat reading in the previous month and posting a 1.3% decline versus a 1.4% drop a year earlier.
eToro Makes Forex Trade Child’s Play
10 Things You Should Beware of During Currency Trading:
* Watch out of those who guarantee large profits.
* Stay away from those who promise no financial free
* Beware of those everything sounds very easy.
* Don’t trade on Margin unless you have been trained
* Please take cautious to online/phony transferring cash in online trading
* Make sure its really interbank market
* Job offer as Account Executive might lead you to use your money for currency trading
* Need to ensure the company background
* Avoid those company who won’t let you know their background
* Don’t fully trust any agency or broker, put some effort to understand currency trading by yourself.
Currency Pairs Correlation in Forex Market: Cross Currency Pairs
As a forex trader, if you check several different currency pairs to find the trade setups, you should be aware of the currency pairs correlation, because of two main reasons:
1- You avoid taking the same position with several correlated currency pairs at the same time and so you do not multiply your risk. Additionally, you avoid taking the positions with the currency pairs that move against each other, at the same time. 2- If you know the currency pairs correlations, it may help you to predict the direction and movement of a currency pair, through the signals that you see on the other correlated currency pairs.
Now I explain how currency pairs correlation helps. Lets start with the 4 major currency pairs: EUR-USD ; GBP-USD ; USD-JPY and USD-CHF.
In both of the first two currency pairs (EUR-USD and GBP-USD), USD works as the money. As you know, the first currency in currency pairs is known as the commodity and the second one is the money. So when you buy EUR-USD, it means you pay USD to buy Euro. In EUR-USD and GBP-USD, the currency that works as the money is the same (USD). The commodity of these pairs are both related to two big European economies. These two currencies are highly connected and related to each other and in 99% of the cases they move on the same direction and form the same buy/sell signals. Just recently, because of the economy crisis, they moved a little differently but their main bias is still the same.
What does it mean? It means if EUR-USD shows a buy signal, GBP-USD should also show a buy signal with minor differences in the strength and shape of the signal. If you analyze the market and you come to this conclusion that you should go short with EUR-USD and at the same time you decided to go long with GBP-USD, it means something is wrong with your analysis and one of your analysis is wrong. So you should not take any position until you see the same signal in both of these pairs. Of course, when these pairs really show two different direction (which rarely happens), it will be a signal to trade EUR-GBP. I will tell you how.
Accordingly, USD-CHF and USD-JPY behave so similar but not as similar as EUR-USD and GBP-USD, because in USD-CHF and USD-JPY, money is different. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen have some similarities because both of them belong to oil consumer countries but the volume of industrial trades in Japan, makes JPY different.
Generally, when you analyze the four major currency pairs, if you see buy signals in EUR-USD and GBP-USD, you should see sell signals in USD-JPY. If you also see a sell signal in USD-CHF, then your analysis is more reliable. Otherwise, you have to revise and redo your analysis.
EUR-USD, GBP-USD, AUD-USD, NZD-USD, GBP-JPY, EUR-JPY, AUD-JPY and NZD-JPY usually have the same direction. Just their movement pattern sometimes becomes more similar to each other and sometimes less.
What do I prefer?
If I find a sell signal with EUR-USD and GBP-USD and a buy signal with USD-JPY, I prefer to take the short position with one of the EUR-USD or GBP-USD because downward movements are usually stronger. I will not take the short position with EUR-USD or GBP-USD and the long position with USD-JPY at the same time, because if any of these positions goes against me, the other one will do the same. So I don’t double my risk by taking two opposite positions with two currency pairs that move against each other.
How to use the currency pairs correlation to predict the direction of the market?
When I have a signal with a pair, but I need confirmation to take the position, I refer to the correlated currency pairs or cross currency pairs and look for the confirmation. For example I see a MACD Divergence in USD-CAD four hours chart but there is no close support breakout in USD-CAD four hours or one hour chart. I want to take a short position but I just need a confirmation. If I wait for the confirmation, it can become too late and I may miss the chance. I check a correlated currency pair like USD-SGD and if I see a support breakout in it, I take the short position with USD-CAD. Now the question is why I don’t take the short position with USD-SGD and I use its support breakout to go short with USD-CAD? I do it because USD-CAD movements are stronger and more profitable. I use USD-SGD just as an indicator to trade USD-CAD.
It happens that you take a position with a currency pair, but it doesn’t work properly and you don’t know if it was a good decision or not. On the other hand, you don’t see any sharp signal on that currency pair to help you decide if you want to keep the position or close it. In such cases, you can check a correlated currency pair and look for a continuation or reversal signal. It helps you to decide about the position you have.
Sometimes, some correlated currency pairs don’t move in the way that they are supposed to move. For example EUR-USD and USD-JPY go up at the same time, whereas they usually move against each other. It can happen when Euro value goes up and USD value doesn’t have a significant change, but at the same time JPY value goes down, because of some reason. In these cases, you can use the below table to find and trade the currency pair that its movement is intensified by an unusual movement in two other currency pairs. In this example, if EUR-USD and USD-JPY go up at the same time, EUR-JPY will go up much stronger (see the below chart).
Or if EUR-USD goes up and AUD-USD goes down at the same time, EUR-AUD goes up strongly.
Another important example: If EUR-USD goes up and GBP-USD goes down at the same time, EUR-GBP goes up strongly. Maybe this is the most important case that we can trade based on this rule. It happens many times that EUR-USD and GBP-USD move against each other and that is the best time to trade EUR-GBP. Now you know why EUR-GBP doesn’t move strongly most of the time. It is because EUR-USD and GBP-USD move in the same direction most of the time. For example they go up at the same time and so EUR-GBP doesn’t show any significant movement because when both of the currencies of a currency pair go up or down at the same time, that currency pair doesn’t show any strong movement and direction (I hope you know why a currency pair goes up or down. It goes up when the first currency value goes up OR the second currency value goes down. For example EUR-USD goes up, if Euro value goes up or USD value goes down. If this happens at the same time, then EUR-USD goes up much stronger).
Forex Without The Fuss
The stock and bond markets continue to make a mockery of most advisors' best-laid plans. Not so here: Forbes ETF Advisor's portfolios are faring relatively well--losing less in order to accelerate our gains when the road runs straight.
Meantime, one of our most successful stakes last year remains in fine fettle this year, despite several reasons that ought to have upended it. Which stake am I talking about? The PowerShares Dollar Bull (nyse: UUP) has been (and remains) our play on a weakening global economy and a ratcheting up of fear on a global scale. Our other smart move last year was the iShares Gold Trust (amex: IAU).
Now, as we wend our way through this year, I suspect we'll find uses for other currencies; right now I think CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (nyse: FXC) is an attractive way to diversify a stake in the as yet unseen recovery. It trades on a relative multiple to natural resources overall (they're the lifeblood of Canada's economy), and has a useful non-correlation to the S&P 500.
Which funds should you be buying to benefit from a market rebound while reducing risk? Click here to download a free special report, "Eight ETFs and Funds for 2009," to find out.
In fact, I like it enough to add it toETF Advisor'sGlobal Growth and Long/Short portfolios. I also think that Europe's economy remains in the cross hairs of our weakening one, making shorting Europe one possible move on the board. However, since I think we're going to get a dead cat bounce in here, I'd be wary of overstepping our current short-selling bounds in the international and emerging equity markets. But I will hedge that wariness by taking an ultra-short position in the euro in our Long/Short portfolio.
With a current position in a currency ETF, and with two more being added to our portfolios' mix, I thought now would be a great time to provide snapshots for each of the currency ETFs we track. It's also a good time to discuss the risks and rewards of investing in currency markets, as well as one strategy that has been a mainstay of hedge funds for decades, which is, I want to emphasize, not the same thing as saying it's has been a profitable strategy.
First, currency trading is both as basic and as potentially volatile as investing gets. Basic, in that high-interest rate currencies have a tendency to strengthen relative to low-interest rate currencies, and vice versa. Volatile, in that that basic metric can change overnight, intra-day, on a whim, without warning.
For the first half of last year, we made hay using a basket approach to currencies rather than betting on a single one. The PowerShares Currency Harvest (nyse: DBV) let us not only buffer the blows of the stock market well but also helped us keep pace with the rapidly changing and economic landscapes here and abroad. As that landscape went from bad to worse, we sought the safe haven of the almighty dollar. It worked.
Stay ahead of the market. Forbes ETF Advisor's model portfolios have outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2009. Click here for Editor Jim Lowell's latest ETF buys and sells.
Comment On This Story
One longstanding approach to investing in currencies is known as a "carry trade": when an investor borrows money in a low interest rate currency and invests in a high interest rate currency, while trying to catch the difference between the rates as a profit. Profits can also be made if the high interest rate currency strengthens relative to the low interest rate currency. Profits are locked in once the loan from the low interest country is paid back.
Carry trades are frequently used in hedge funds. One risk with this type of investment lies in the fact that foreign exchange rates are unpredictable; the high interest currency could devalue relative to the low interest currency. Another risk lies in interest rate changes in either of the countries. As we have seen over the past year, interest rates can change considerably over a short period of time.
Additionally, many of these investments are done with leverage, so a small move in interest rates or exchange rates can magnify the losses. On the other hand, a move in the right direction could deliver large profits. So far, we haven't used currencies in a bid to deliver leveraged profits; instead, we've deployed them to help buffer the blows of the de-leveraging equity markets.
Dugg on Forbes.com
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar (nyse: FXA): The price of the Australian dollar, the sixth most traded currency, is the mark here. FXA began trading in June 2006 and charges 0.40% in expenses. It has a market value of over $255 million and an average daily trading volume of approximately 129,000 shares.
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling (nyse: FXB): The sterling seeks investment results that correspond to the price of the British pound sterling, the fourth most traded currency. The ETF began trading in June 2006 and charges 0.40% in expenses. It has a market value of $114.5 million and an average daily trading volume of approximately 109,000 shares.
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (nyse: FXC): The Canadian dollar, nicknamed the "loon" after the namesake bird on its back, is the seventh most traded currency. The ETF began trading in June 2006 and charges 0.40% in expenses. It has a market value of more than $210 million and an average daily trading volume of approximately 90,000 shares.
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (nyse: FXY): The Japanese yen, the third most traded currency, is at stake here. The ETF began trading in February 2007 and charges 0.40% in expenses. It has a market value of over $529 million and an average daily trading volume of approximately 237,000 shares.
In Pictures: 10 Currency ETFs
Excerpted from March issue of Forbes ETF Advisor by Jim Lowell. Click here for more fund advice and recommendations in Fidelity Investor.
Tax on Forex trades to raise $50bn aid
A tax on currency transactions, a levy on mobile phone calls and a global lottery will be looked at by a high-level international task force this week in an attempt to raise $45bn (£28bn) to improve health systems in the world's poorest countries.
Amid fears that the global recession will lead to cuts in western aid budgets, a task force set up by Gordon Brown will meet in Paris to discuss so-called "innovative financing mechanisms".
The prime minister is under pressure from a coalition of UK and international campaign groups to back a 0.005% micro-tax on the $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) annual trade in foreign currencies.
Anton Kerr, policy manager of the International HIV/Aids Alliance, said the levy would raise $30bn-$50bn a year - enough to double spending on health in low-income countries. "All eyes are on Gordon Brown, " he said. "A number of countries - including Germany, France and the US - have expressed an interest in a currency transaction tax but they are waiting for somebody to take the lead."
UK government sources said the task force would boil down a hundred options for raising money and come up with about 10 ideas to submit to the G8 summit in July and a gathering of world leaders at the UN in September.
The prime minister is sceptical about a currency tax, on the grounds that it would cause distortions in the financial markets unless it were introduced universally. Britain will back the selling of bonds and support France's proposed levy on air passengers but is also interested in plans to ask mobile phone users to pay an extra 10p when they top up their phones.
Friday, October 9, 2009
How to Trade Forex
Now that you know some important factors to be aware of when opening a forex account, we will take a look at what exactly you can trade within that account. The two main ways to trade in the foreign currency market is the simple buying and selling of currency pairs, where you go long one currency and short another. The second way is through the purchasing of derivatives that track the movements of a specific currency pair. Both of these techniques are highly similar to techniques in the equities market.The most common way is to simply buy and sell currency pairs, much in the same way most individuals buy and sell stocks. In this case, you are hoping the value of the pair itself changes in a favorable manner. If you go long a currency pair, you are hoping that the value of the pair increases. For example, let's say that you took a long position in the USD/CAD pair - you will make money if the value of this pair goes up, and lose money if it falls. This pair rises when the U.S. dollar increases in value against the Canadian dollar, so it is a bet on the U.S. dollar.
The other option is to use derivative products, such as options and futures, to profit from changes in the value of currencies. If you buy an option on a currency pair, you are gaining the right to purchase a currency pair at a set rate before a set point in time. A futures contract, on the other hand, creates the obligation to buy the currency at a set point in time. Both of these trading techniques are usually only used by more advanced traders, but it is important to at least be familiar with them. (For more on this, try Getting Started in Forex Options and our tutorials, Option Spread Strategies and Options Basics Tutorial.)
Types of Orders
A trader looking to open a new position will likely use either a market order or a limit order. The incorporation of these order types remains the same as when they are used in the equity markets. A market order gives a forex trader the ability to obtain the currency at whatever exchange rate it is currently trading at in the market, while a limit order allows the trader to specify a certain entry price. (For a brief refresher of these orders, see The Basics of Order Entry.)
Forex traders who already hold an open position may want to consider using a take-profit order to lock in a profit. Say, for example, that a trader is confident that the GBP/USD rate will reach 1.7800, but is not as sure that the rate could climb any higher. A trader could use a take-profit order, which would automatically close his or her position when the rate reaches 1.7800, locking in their profits.
Forex and Go (Part 1)
You already know that the forex market is a 24 hour market. But did you know that every currency pair has it's own special behavior (sort of "personality"!) throughout this 24 hour period? Well, professional traders sure know this and they exploit this characteristic of the forex market to pull in incredible profits day after day.
Now, with Forex Flip & Go (another of my PDFT day trading strategies), you can take advantage of a certain EXPLOSIVE characteristic of the EUR/USD pair (the most liquid of all currency pairs) which produces HIGH PROBABILITY/LOW RISK trades over and over again.
The EUR/USD's daily range is about 80-100 pips ($800-$1,000). As daytraders we want to catch a big portion of this daily move and we want to do it with as little risk as possible. Here is where this beautiful strategy comes to our help! The strength of the Forex Flip & Go strategy is that it catches a large part of these $1,000 swings right at the beginning of the move.Let's look at some examples so you can see exactly what I mean when I say that Forex Flip & Go catches large swings at the very beginning of the move and impressively limits risk:NOTE: Trade examples open in a new window.
Many of the best performing professional traders agree that the key to make serious money in daytrading is having small losses and large gains. That is exactly what Forex Flip & Go does, it identifies a large move at the beginning BUT if it is wrong it will get you out of the market with a minimal loss. I hope you had the chance to view the example charts I put above, they show exactly how Forex Flip & Go does an amazing job of exiting the market when it is wrong (with losses many times smaller than 10 pips!) and how it exploits large moves from beginning to end.If you are serious about being a successful forex daytrader and learning one of the best methods to consistently capture profitable trades then Forex Flip & Go is for you!
Forex Cash Cow Strategy
Forex Cash Cow strategy is truly amazing. I consider it by far my best PDFT swing trading strategy. This incredible system is 100% mechanical, this means it requires ABSOLUTELY NO discretion, interpretention, or judgment. You will simply learn to follow strict rules: if A = B then do C!Since it is a PDFT strategy you will not use ANY type of indicators, the only thing you will need to know is the price of the currency pair you are trading.It truly takes 1 minute per week to implement this strategy, making it perfect for people who do not have the necessary time to monitor the market. In fact, I constantly get emails from Forex Cash Cow traders who say they are making more money trading this system than at their current day jobs!Let's look at how easy it is to trade the Forex Cash Cow strategy:
STEP 1 : Every day after the end of the trading day the trader checks to see if condition one of the system has been met. No interpretation or judgment, it is either yes or no, black or white! This step takes exactly 10 seconds. If condition one has not been met, nothing happens. If met it means there could be an entry signal the next trading day (the trader already knows to what direction, long or short) and step 2 comes into play.
STEP 2 : The next day the trader simply enters three types of orders with his or her broker: a limit order for initiating the trade, a stop loss order to limit risk and a profit objective. All these three numbers are exact pre-set numbers that you will learn how to calculate in less then 10 seconds. Again, no interpretation or judgment, just follow exact rules.
STEP 3 : Wait for results!As traders say, a chart is worth 1000 words! Let's look at several examples of Forex Cash Cow trades. Simply click on the below chart images, chart will open in new window.
Forex Trading Methods!
One of the true strength of Forex Cash Cow (and of the other 2 systems I teach in my course) is the fact that it is 100% mechanical. Traders who have been around for some time know the incredible benefits a mechanical system has over non-mechanical trading strategies.
Let's look at some of the amazing benefits of the Forex Cash Cow strategy: No interpretation or judgment required. Since this is a 100% mechanical trading strategy you will be trading completely stress free. This is key with ANY trading strategy. Human emotions is what ultimately breaks traders. With Forex Cash Cow you are guaranteed to not have this problem.Easy to follow rules. As simple as if A = B do C!Works the same for everyone who follow the exact rules (unlike non-mechanical trading methods that work for the very few, and most of the time not even that) Impressively easy to learn. Most Forex Cash Cow traders can put this amazing strategy to work the next day after learning it.
Know today if tomorrow there will be a trade. Yes! You will know a day ahead if a trade is going to be triggered or not.
No monitoring the market. Many people want to trade the forex market but simply don't have the necessary time. Now, with Forex Cash Cow you can trade even if you have a day job! It simply takes 1 minute per week to implement it.
The forex market is known for it's large price swings that when properly traded result in amazing profits. Forex Cash Cow not only trades these price swings with great success BUT it identifies only the best of the best swings, the top percent.No more buying "black box" systems or subscribing to signal providers. All the strategies rules are 100% disclosed and explained. You will have complete control over your trading.
A unique PDFT (Price Driven Forex Trading) strategy. No indicators, no vague chart patterns, no pivots, no support and resistance, no anything you have seen or read until now.And much more....!
Forex Runner
Learn how to day trade the forex market and consistently nail $200, $300 or $400 trades over and over again. Forex Runner is simply one of the best day trading systems I have ever traded. And, being one of my unique PDFT strategies, you will not use any tools or indicators to trade it, the ONLY thing you will need is the price of the currency pair.Forex Runner let's you trade 100% emotion-free since it is completely mechanical. It's rules are incredibly easy to understand, it will not take you more than one hour to learn how to trade it.
One of the amazing characteristics of Forex Runner is that it let's you trade when ever you have time. Since the forex market is a 24 hour market, you have the luxury to decide exactly when it is best for you to put Forex Runner to work.
If you have been around for some time in the trading business you know how hard it is to find a consistently profitable day trading strategy. Forex Runner was built to be consistent. Small stop losses, large profit objectives and a large percentage of winning trades makes Forex Runner one of the top performing forex trading systems.Here are some of the many benefits Forex Runner traders have:A revolutionary Price Driven Forex Trading (PDFT) strategy.
You will not use any type of indicators, identify any vague patterns, or use support or resistance levels etc. You will only use the price of the currency pair to identify, enter and profit from the trade.You will learn how to exploit the daily range of the major currency pairs.How to enter "hit and run" trades; i.e. Identify fast, enter fast and profit fast!Fully disclosed system: no need to buy, rent or subscribe to any service. You control your trading, you decide when to trade, you decide how much to trade.
So easy to learn that most of my traders (many who are completely new to forex trading) put Forex Runner to work only 1 day after learning it.
No stress, no emotions: Since Forex Runner is 100% mechanical you will only follow strict rules to identify, enter and exit trades. No interpretation or judgment what so ever (if you trade already, you most likely know the value of 100% mechanical trading)!Cheat most daytradres! While 90% of traders will identify trades only after the market started moving (and trust me, most enter as the move is ending!), you will have already identified and entered trades BEFORE the market started moving.
Be your own boss, chose when to trade. Since the forex market is active 24 hours a day, no matter what part of the world you live in you can put Forex Runner to work for you!Profit objective is pre-set. This means you do not have to think and speculate where to place it. Once you enter the trade you will simply enter a "take profit" order and forget about it.
World events and wise Forex trading
Forex trading has the great potential of becoming a profitable and fulfilling career that will let you have a lifestyle that few other lucrative activities in the world can offer to people from many roads in life and without asking any of those men and women for a diploma or some special certification.
But Forex trading is not easy; it may be simple to enter and place your first trade but becoming a profitable trader is a different thing. You will need to acquire the right knowledge and techniques in order to understand and know when to enter or leave a trade always fulfilling the main objective every trader must have; making money.
There are two kinds of analysis you can perform on the Forex markets. They are known as technical analysis and fundamental analysis. It is common that traders tend to divide themselves into "technical" and "fundamentalists". Each group devoting themselves to the main tools each kind of analysis gives them.
Technical forex traders base their trading on the analysis of the charts and the number of indicators derived from the plots of price oscillations and patterns. Meanwhile Fundamentalists traders base their trading mostly on the fundamental numbers and economical indicators of countries economies. Though, even if divided, both tendencies tend to complement each other to some degree.
In this article I will place myself on the "fundamentalists" side and focus on one of the situations every forex trader must be aware of and don't let the events involved affect his trading efforts.
This risky situation is that when unprecedented chaotic world events start to develop as the trading day goes on. The power of the media (tv, internet, printed) can magnify and sometimes it may even distort the events taking place and impacting the trading journey in a significant manner. The result of this magnification and rapid diffusion of the news about the series of unfavorable events taking place is an increased atmosphere of fear, confusion and uncertainty in the trading world. And fearful traders are not prone to make the best trading choices because they have given themselves to panic and emotional reactions instead of reasoned and intelligent decisions.
If you need to have more specific examples of these kind of events you can search a bit inside your memories and consider the impact of just a few types of unfavorable chaotic world events as the political upheavals or corporate scandals of companies as; Enron, WorldCom, or of people as the case of Martha Stewart trial, etc. There is also the example of the terrorist attacks on Sep 11 in New York, March 11 in Spain, etc. Also natural disasters: tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, freezes, droughts, hurricanes along with wars can cause great disruption in a trading journey.
In short, every forex trader should be totally sure that his method of trading has built-in safe guards (stops, limit orders) to prevent a major financial loss from his trading account in case any of the unfavorable events I mentioned above ever takes place. And being realistic, many of those events will surely happen in the future.
Online Forex Trading
Do you know what Forex trading is? Some people have heard of this type of trading, others have not. If you haven't, it might be something you are interested in trying. Forex trading stands for foreign exchange trading. What it consists of is the buying and selling of different currencies. This is done simultaneously, and there are people who make a lot of money with this kind of trading. This is apparent by the 1.9 million dollar turnover in this market that happens every day. Also a lot of it is done online. Online Forex trading is very popular.
The most common currencies to trade are the Euro and the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen. However, nearly all of the Forex trading done involves the major currencies of the world. These include the Euro, Japanese Yen, U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, British Pound, Australian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The Forex exchange is different from other exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange, in that it does not have a physical location or central exchange. The exchange day begins in Sydney, then moves to Tokyo, on to London, and finally ends in New York. Each country takes the responsibility of regulating the Forex exchange activities in their own country. So there is no overall regulatory agency. However, this does not seem to be a problem and most countries do very well at overseeing Forex exchange activities.
There are a lot of things that influence the Forex rate. For instance, economic things, like interest rates and inflation, and also political things, such as political unrest in other countries and major changes in government cause up and down changes in the Forex rate. However, these things tend to be short-term, and don't affect it for long.
Online Forex trading sites are easy to find by surfing the Internet. Most of them provide a wealth of information for the first time trader. You can find out about the history of Forex trading, how to co it, tips on being successful, etc. You can also start trading with as little as $250 in your account on some sites. For anyone who is interested in currency or trading, it is something you should check out.
As with any type of trading, there are no guarantees that you will make money or that you won't make money. It is a smart choice to learn as much as you can about online Forex trading before investing any money and doing any trading. It is a fact that informed investors do better than those who don't know much about what they are trading. So get the fact before you dive in. You might just make a little money in a very interesting currency exchange.
Advantages of the Forex Market
What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?
When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.
The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.
Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control
Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.
The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.
Forex: Dealing with your losses
One of the most important rules of Forex trading is to keep your losses as small as you possibly can. With small Forex trading losses, you can stick it out longer than those times when the market moves against you, and be well positioned for when the trend turns around. The one proven method to keeping your losses small is to set your maximum loss before you even open a Forex trading position.
The maximum loss is the greatest amount of capital that you are comfortable losing on any one trade. With your maximum loss set as a small percentage of your Forex trading effort, a string of losses won't stop you from trading for any particular amount of time. Unlike the 95% of Forex traders out there who lose money because they haven't begun to use wise money management rules to their Forex trading system, you will be ok with this money management rule.
To use as an example, If I had a Forex trading float of $1000, and I began trading with $100 a trade, it would be reasonable for me to experience three losses in a row. This would reduce my Forex trading capital to $400. It would then be decided that they're going to bet $200 on the next trade because they think they have a higher chance of winning after having lost three times already.
If that trader did bet $100 dollars on the next trade because they thought they were going to win, their capital could be reduced to $250 dollars. The chances of making money now are practically nil because I would need to make 150% on the next trade just to break even. If the maximum loss had been determined, and stuck to, they would not be in this position.
In this case, the reason for failure was because the trader risked too much money, and didn't apply good money management to the play. Remember, the goal here is to keep our losses as small as possible while also making sure that we open a large enough position to capitalize on profits and minimize losses. With your money management rules in place, in your Forex trading system, you will always be able to do this.
Opening A Forex Brokerage Account
Trading forex is similar to the equity market because individuals interested in trading need to open up a trading account. Like the equity market, each forex account and the services it provides differ, so it is important that you find the right one. Below we will talk about some of the factors that should be considered when selecting a forex account.
Leverage
Leverage is basically the ability to control large amounts of capital, using very little of your own capital; the higher the leverage, the higher the level of risk. The amount of leverage on an account differs depending on the account itself, but most use a factor of at least 50:1, with some being as high as 250:1. A leverage factor of 50:1 means that for every dollar you have in your account you control up to $50. For example, if a trader has $1,000 in his or her account, the broker will lend that person $50,000 to trade in the market. This leverage also makes your margin, or the amount you have to have in the account to trade a certain amount, very low. In equities, margin is usually at least 50%, while the leverage of 50:1 is equivalent to 2%.
Leverage is seen as a major benefit of forex trading, as it allows you to make large gains with a small investment. However, leverage can also be an extreme negative if a trade moves against you because your losses also are amplified by the leverage. With this kind of leverage, there is the real possibility that you can lose more than you invested - although most firms have protective stops preventing an account from going negative. For this reason, it is vital that you remember this when opening an account and that when you determine your desired leverage you understand the risks involved.
Commissions and Fees
Another major benefit of forex accounts is that trading within them is done on a commission-free basis. This is unlike equity accounts, in which you pay the broker a fee for each trade. The reason for this is that you are dealing directly with market makers and do not have to go through other parties like brokers.
This may sound too good to be true, but rest assured that market makers are still making money each time you trade. Remember the bid and ask from the previous section? Each time a trade is made, it is the market makers that capture the spread between these two. Therefore, if the bid/ask for a foreign currency is 1.5200/50, the market maker captures the difference (50 basis points).
If you are planning on opening a forex account, it is important to know that each firm has different spreads on foreign currency pairs traded through them. While they will often differ by only a few pips (0.0001), this can be meaningful if you trade a lot over time. So when opening an account make sure to find out the pip spread that it has on foreign currency pairs you are looking to trade.
Planning: A Key to Successful Trading
From time to time I get some very interesting confessions. Here is a very recent one, along with a solution.
"Hey Joe! I had been looking at a profitable trade setup all day. I studied indicator after indicator looking for confirmation, even though I know many are correlated and redundant. But I just kept on searching. I thought, ’Maybe I missed something.’ My account is now so small that I just wanted to be sure that this was the right trade. My thought was that I must take into consideration anything and everything that could cause this trade to fail. I can’t afford to lose any more money. What should I do?"
Well, my friend, you need to be able to make a decision, but you can’t do it if you are trading undercapitalized and making your trading decisions out of fear and uncertainty.
You are suffering from too much analysis. You are looking at so many things, you no longer can see straight. If you keep on over-analyzing your trades, it may develop into a deep-seated psychological problem.
Carefully analyzing the possible consequences of your trading decisions is healthy, but it becomes unhealthy when it is overdone. When it comes to trading, it’s important to have a clearly defined trading plan. You want to be sure that any given trade is not going to wipe out your trading account. That is one of the reasons we want you to use a time stop in addition to a money stop. When you use both types of stops you are clearly defining the signs and signals that indicate your trading plan is not working, suggesting that you should close out the trade to protect your capital.
Trading, by its very nature, is uncertain. There is little that can be described as security for traders. Every trade is a new event, and every entry is an entirely new business. A trader does not have the luxury of living from his past accomplishments.
If you have an unquenchable thirst for certainty, then trading is not for you. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity. If money represents security to you, you have a real problem as a trader. Losing money not only costs you your financial security, but also your emotional security.
At many of my seminars and private tutorings I tell people that I have completely divorced myself from the money involved in trading. I don’t even know until the end of the month whether I have won or lost. I trained myself to think of trading as an endeavor in which I strive to make points. Only later are those points translated to dollars. In that sense, for me trading is a game. But I never lose sight of the fact that trading is also a serious business.
Insecurity in traders who over-analyze manifests in searching for the holy grail of trading, desperately seeking the right indicator or the perfect trade setup. The problem you’re having is that even when you see something, you are not sure it is sufficiently perfect for you to act on. Why? Because you lack confidence in your ability to trade what you see. Because you lack confidence in yourself. And because you fear the pain of another loss.
Here’s how I was taught to do my analytical work.
First, I went through all my charts to get an overview of the markets. During that time, I looked for trending markets. Trend lines were placed on the charts as long as they had a 30° or greater angle. Until I became used to what that looked like, I used a protractor to determine the angle. This action got me used to identifying the trend. These days it is easily done with your software.
Next, I went through all my charts again looking for "against the grain" moves-the intermediate trend that went against the longer term trend. This alerted me to markets that might soon resume trending.
Then I went through all my charts looking for Ross hooks™. I marked each hook with a bright red "h". Then, in light of the size of my margin account, I tried to select those markets that appeared to have the greatest potential, and I placed order entry stops just above or below the hooks. These were resting orders in the market. I tried to never miss a hook. I phoned my orders in daily.
How did I know which markets had the greatest potential? The answer is simple. I selected those markets that had the strongest trend lines.
Now there was a trick to this. I didn’t want too steep an angle, because in a rising market that often signals that the end of a move is near. Markets that break out too fast and go straight up rarely give an opportunity for entry before they start to chop around in congestion. Markets that have been going up at a steady angle, and suddenly that angle steepens-goes parabolic, are giving a warning that the move may soon be over.
In down markets I was willing to allow a steeper angle, because often a market will move down a lot faster than it moved up.
What I most wanted was trending markets that were making a retracement. Then I could attempt an entry as the market retraced, when it reached the proximity of the trend line, and then seemed to resume its trend, and when it took out the Ross hook™ created by the retracement.
Sometimes I had to wait for weeks before the markets started trending. The same is true today; nothing has changed other than that intraday it can happen a lot sooner. There will usually be at least a couple of markets in that condition, but there are times when there are none.
Yet I did my homework every day. The only way to know when an important breakout, the beginning of a trend, would occur, was to perform my daily analytical work.
Finally, I would set my work aside and take a break for dinner. After dinner, when my head had cleared a bit, I would look at my charts again. I would then do my best to come up with a trading plan. I would try to think through what I was going to do. I would ask myself a million "what if’s." I tried to anticipate what might happen in the market.
Often that kind of thinking would cause me to eliminate some of my potential trades. Also, a second look at times resulted in "why didn’t I see this before?"
For instance, what if you look at a market that is approaching its trend line. Isn’t it reasonable to ask yourself, "If this market breaks the trend line, what would I do?" Ask yourself how such an event would change the picture. If you had a position, would you still want to hold it? If you had no position, would this cause you to take a position opposite what was the trend? If it would, then why not place an order entry stop with limit, just the other side of that trend line? Very often, when prices approach a trend line from what has been a trending channel, they are already in a counter trend within the channel. That means a breakout of the trend line would be a continuation of this newly formed trend.
Finally, I would put my work aside and go to bed. In the morning I would look at my charts once again. Then I would write out scripts for the orders I wanted to place.
I would rehearse how authoritatively I was going to give these orders.
I did all this and more before I entered a trade. But do you know what most traders do? They do their analysis after the trade is made. Too often, they do it when the trade is already going against them.
How many times have you entered a trade, and then said to yourself, "Oh no, why didn’t I see that before?" How could you have seen it if you hadn’t looked, and looked again, and thought about it, and then perhaps looked one more time?
Also, many traders do their analysis after entering the trade in search of a justification for having entered. "Now I’m in the trade, let’s see if I can find out a couple of good reasons as to why!"
If you want to be a successful trader, you have to be hard. Hard on yourself and hard on your broker. I don’t mean that you have to be a rat, or be impolite, or be contemptuous. You just have to be firm in all that you do. You can’t afford to be "Mickey Mouse" about the way you do things. This is a business; you must be businesslike in conducting your affairs.
As a business person, you must manage your business. One of the main functions of management is planning. You have to plan your trades. Other things to look for as you go through your charts are: One-two-three formations, cups with handle, matching congestions, reversal bars, and Doji’s. These should all be part of your plan.
Some people give more thought to choosing which flavor ice cream to eat than to which market to enter and how and when to do it.
By not taking the time for preparation, you end up not having enough time to weigh the pros and cons or really familiarize yourself with what you are getting into.
You don’t have time to realize that prices have supported two ticks away from your entry about forty times in the past. You don’t have time to see that you are trading right into overhead selling. You don’t have time to notice that if prices break out of yesterday’s high, they will also probably take out a Ross hook. You don’t have time to see where prices are in relation to the trend line. You don’t have time to really grasp the overall trend, or the wave that is going counter trend. You don’t have time to really consider where you will place your stop. You don’t have time to read the market and to see what it might be telling you.
All of these things can be done ahead of time. If you do not do your homework, you will end up chasing markets in a desperate attempt to get into "the big move."
Futures Spread Trading
How professional traders optimize profits
Futures spread trading is probably the most profitable, yet safest way to trade futures. Almost every professional trader uses spreads to optimize his profits. Trading spreads offers many advantages which make it the perfect trading instrument, especially for beginners and traders with small accounts (less than $10,000).
The following example of a Soybean-Spread shows the advantages of futures spread trading:
Example: Long May Soybeans (SK3) and Short November Soybeans (SX3)
Four Advantages of Futures Spread Trading
Advantage 1: Easy to trade
Do you see how nicely this spread starts trending in mid February? Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, whether you use chart formations or indicators, the existence of a trend is obvious. (If you are looking for a concept of how to identify a trend, we strongly recommend visiting http://www.tradingeducators.com/?source=Tradejuicetrading_philosophy.htm). Spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. They trend without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers.
Advantage 2: Low Margin requirements
Many spreads have reduced margin requirements, which means that you can afford to put on more positions. While the margin on an outright futures position in corn is $540, a spread trade in corn requires only $135 — 25% as much. That’s a great advantage for traders with a small account. With a $10,000 trading account risking 8% of your account, you can enter 6 corn spreads, instead of only 1-2 outright corn futures trade. How’s that for leverage?
Advantage 3: Higher return on margin
Each point in the spread carries the same value ($50) as each point in the outright futures ($50). That means that on a 3 point favorable move in corn futures or a 3 point favorable move in the spread, you would earn $150. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary:
Corn futures - $150/$540 = 27.8% return
Corn spread - $150/$135 = 111% return
And keep in mind that you can trade 6 times as many spread contracts as you can outright futures contracts. In our example you would achieve a 24 times higher return on you margin.
Advantage 4: Low time requirements
You don’t have to watch a spread all day long. You do not need real-time data. The most effective way to trade spreads is using end-of-day data. Therefore, spread trading is the best way to trade if you do not want to watch or cannot watch your computer all day long (i.e. because you have a daytime job). And you can save all the money you would have had to spend for real-time data systems (up to $600 per month).
So where is the catch?
If futures spread trading is so fantastic, why does it seems that hardly anybody trades spreads? Well, it is not true that hardly anybody trades spreads: the professional traders do, every day. But either by accident or design, the whole truth of spread trading has been hidden from the public over the years.
The purpose of this website is to inform you about futures spread trading. In the following we will answer the four frequently asked questions:
* What is a spread?
* Why trade spreads?
* What can you expect when trading spreads?
What Is a Spread?
A spread is defined as the sale of one or more futures contracts and the purchase of one or more offsetting futures contracts. You can turn that around to state that a spread is the purchase of one or more futures contracts and the sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts. A spread is also created when a trader owns (is long) the physical vehicle and offsets by selling (going short) futures. Furthermore, a spread is defined as the purchase and sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts normally recognized as a spread by the fact that the two sides of the spread are actually related in some way. This explicitly excludes those exotic spreads put forth by some vendors, which are nothing more than computer generated coincidences which are not in any way related. Such exotic spreads as Long Bond futures and Short Bean Oil futures may show up as reliable computer generated spreads, but bean oil and bonds are not really related. Such spreads fall into the same category as believing the annual performance of the U.S. stock market is somehow related to the outcome of the Super Bowl sporting event. In any case, for tactical reasons in carrying out a particular strategy, you want to end up with:
* simultaneously long futures of one kind in one month, and short futures of the same kind in another month. (Intramarket Calendar Spread)
* simultaneously long futures of one kind, and short futures of another kind. (Intermarket Spread)
* long futures at one exchange, and short a related futures at another exchange. (Inter-exchange Spread)
* long an underlying physical commodity, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long an underlying equity position, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long financial instruments, and short financial futures. (Hedge)
* long a single stock futures and short a sector index.
The primary ways in which this can be accomplished are:
* Via an Intramarket spread.
* Via an Intermarket spread.
* Via an Inter-exchange spread.
* By ownership of the underlying and offsetting with a futures contract.
Intramarket Spreads
Officially, Intramarket spreads are created only as calendar spreads. You are long and short futures in the same market, but in different months. An example of an Intramarket spread is that you are Long July Corn and simultaneously Short December Corn.
Intermarket Spreads
An Intermarket spread can be accomplished by going long futures in one market, and short futures of the same month in another market. For example: Short May Wheat and Long May Soybeans.
Intermarket spreads can become calendar spreads by using long and short futures in different markets and in different months.
Inter-Exchange Spreads
A less commonly known method of creating spreads is via the use of contracts in similar markets, but on different exchanges. These spreads can be calendar spreads using different months, or they can be spreads in which the same month is used. Although the markets are similar, because the contracts occur on different exchanges they are able to be spread. An example of an Inter-exchange calendar spread would be simultaneously Long July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat, and Short an equal amount of May Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBOT) Wheat. An example of using the same month might be Long December CBOT Wheat and Short December KCBOT Wheat.
Why Spreads?
The rationale behind spread trading is one of the best-kept secrets of the insiders of the futures markets. While spreading is commonly done by the market "insiders," much effort is made to conceal this technique and all of its benefits from "outsiders," you and me. After all, why would the insiders want to give away their edge? By keeping us from knowing about spreading, they retain a distinct advantage.
Spreading is one of the most conservative forms of trading. It is much safer than the trading of outright (naked) futures contracts. Let’s take a quick look at some of the benefits of using spreads:
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads require considerably less margin, typically around 25% - 75% of the margin needed for outright futures positions.
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads offer a far greater return on investment than is possible with outright futures positions. Why? Because you are posting less margin for the same amount of possible return.
* Spreads, in general, trend more often than do outright futures.
* Spreads often trend when outright futures are flat.
* Spreads can be filtered by virtue of seasonality, backwardation, and carrying charge differentials, in addition to any other filters you might be using in your trading.
* Spreads can be used to create partial futures positions. In fact, virtually anything that can be done with options on futures can be accomplished via spread trading.
* Spreads allow you to take less risk than is available with outright futures positions. The amount of risk between two Intramarket futures positions is usually less than the risk in an outright futures position. The risk between owning the underlying and holding a futures contract involves the least risk of all. Spreads make it possible to hedge any position you might have in the market. Whether you are hedging between physical ownership and futures, or between two futures positions, the risk is lower than that of outright futures. In that sense, every spread is a hedge.
* Spread order entry enables you to enter or exit a trade using an actual spread order, or by independently entering each side of the spread (legging in/out).
* Spreads are one of the few ways to obtain decent fills by legging in/out during the market Closing.
* Live data is not needed for spread trading, saving you $$ in exchange fees.
* You will not be the victim of stop running when using Intramarket spreads.
What Can You Expect?
Here is an example of what you can expect from Intramarket spread trading. We think you may be pleasantly surprised!!
This spread was entered not only on the basis of seasonality, but also by virtue of the formation known as a Ross hook (Rh). The spread moved from -69.0 to -7.5 = $3,075 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $608, thus the return on margin is more than 500%.
Here is an example of an Intermarket spread. Look at the the following chart: Would you want to have been long live cattle from December until February?
But, what about a spread between Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle?
The spread moved from -10,200 to -7,200 = $3,000 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $540. The return on margin is more than 550%.
Lastly, we show you another intermarket spread. This one was made between Euro and British Pound. Although you might have made money on a Euro trade, you would have suffered from serious whipsaw during the entire length of the trade.
What about a spread between the Euro and the British Pound?
You didn’t have to be in this spread for very long in order to take some fat profits: During February the spread moved from $32,500 to $36,187.50 = $3,687.50 per contract.
How do I start trading spreads?
We can barely scratch the surface of what is available in the almost lost art of spread trading. There are times when seasonal spreads, coupled with chart formations, make a lot of sense. Backwardation in any market often provides an excellent signal for entry into a spread.
All the best in your trading,
